Cotton Match: Pakistan VS India 2008
Posted by Unknown in Cotton, Import Export, India, Pakistan on Friday, 25 January 2013
Pakistan
was born in 1947 with a smaller base of textile industry consuming only
78,000 bales of 170-kgs each but producing a larger cotton crop of 1.1
million 170-kg bales and exporting almost more than 90 percent of its
season's production.
Against
this, India was born with a broad-based textile sector consuming around
4.4 million 170-kg bales while producing a smaller cotton crop 2.3
million bales and meeting its shortfall through cotton imports.
As
such, Pakistan started its career in cotton as an exporting country
while India started its career as an importing country. Pakistan
inherited corporate farming system along with its individual/family
farming.
Most
of the corporate farming was owned and controlled by British companies
which also operated a large number of ginning factories apart from
running export houses for exporting raw cotton.
The
Government of Pakistan launched broad-based industrial policies giving
incentives of soft-loans, relaxation in taxes, availability of
comparatively cheaper cotton by levying export duties on raw cotton and
other benefits to the private sector for establishing spinning units to
increase cotton consumption and producing cloth and other textile
products to meet country's demand.
Resultantly,
spinning capacity went on increasing and in 1960 our domestic cotton
requirements increased to 1.45 million 170-kg bales, in 1970 to 2.58, in
1980 to 2.354, in 1990 to 6.563 in 2000 to 10.048, in 2002 to 11.264
million 170-kg bales and finally in 2007-2008 total domestic consumption
of cotton is estimated between 15.5 and 16.0 million 170-kg bales.
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| 15 percent of Pakistan's total cotton production is from districts within 50 miles of the Indian border. While in India 19 percent of total cotton production comes from the districts within 50 miles of the Pakistan border. |
Simultaneously,
in cotton production, new technologies were adopted and production also
registered increase year to year and in 1991-92. Pakistan produced a
record high crop of 12.8 million bales while in 2000-2001, Pakistan's
cotton production and consumption was almost equal around 10.45 million
bales. It is natural but also worth mentioning that size of cotton crop
widely fluctuated mostly because of weather, seed and attack of pest and
diseases while cotton consumption almost remained increasing
consistently.
The
worst failure of cotton crop was seen in 1983-84 when its production
was at 2.777 million bales against last year 1982-83 crop of 4.658
million bales ( 40 percent decrease) and but next year in 1984-85 crop
size jumped to record high level of 5.776 million bales (108 percent
increase).
In
60 years period from 1947-48 to 2007-2008, Pakistan produced top
largest cotton crop of 14.30 million 170-kg bales in 2004-2005 and
second largest one of 12.8 million bales in 1991-92 and third one of
12.5 million bales in 2005-2006. Pakistan made largest export of 4.5
million bales in 1988-89 and the second largest one of 4.08 million
bales in 1985-86.
Although
Pakistan practically started importing cotton from 1993-94 but after
2000-2001, Pakistan's position was shifted from cotton exporting country
to cotton importing country. After 2000, spinning capacity increased by
leaps and bounds and so domestic cotton consumption and in 2007-2008,
it is estimated between 15.5 and 16.0 million 170-kg bales.
Unfortunately,
our crop failed this season (2007-2008) and crop size is estimated
around 9.0 million 170-kg bales against initial target of 13.64 million
170-kg bales ( Ex-farm target was 14.14 million 170-kg bales); shortfall
being 27.4 percent against last season's crop.
This
season, we may have to import more than 5.0 million 170-kg bales to
meet our domestic requirement of 15.5 million bales. India had been net
cotton importing country till 2000-2001 and it adopted new seed,
irrigation and other farm technologies to boost its production and
productivity.
Resultantly,
since 2004-2005 to the current season 2007-2008, India has been
producing record crops every season and in 2007-2008 season its
production is estimated around 31.0 million 170-kg bales the best crop
in 60 years. India's total domestic requirements this season are
estimated around 25.0 million bales, leaving surplus of 6.0 million
bales.
Last
year, India exported 5.5 million bales and this season around 6.0
million is expected. India has achieved high productions mostly by
increasing its yield and not increasing its area under cotton. India
improved its lint yield from 275 in 2000-2001 to 570 kgs per hectare (It
is less than half of lint yield in China) in 2007-2008 while Pakistan's
yield decreased from 632 in 2000-2001 down to 470 kgs per hectare in
2007-2008. Thus in last 8 years, India improved its yield by more than
107 percent while in the same period Pakistan's lint yield decreased by
10 percent.
In
comparison with Pakistan, India improved its yield by 117 percent in 8
years. If India maintains its growth rate of 10 percent, it may cross
China's present level of cotton production equivalent to 46.0 million
170-kg bales in next 5 years (2012-2013) and may achieve production
level of 50 million 170-kg bales in next 7 years by 2015, occupying
position of top most cotton producing country of the world pushing China
down to second position while it had already taken second position in
world cotton production pushing USA down to third position in 2006-2007.
It
appears quite difficult for India to match its kgs 570 per hectare
yield with Chinese yield of over kgs 1200 per hectare. Pakistan is the
fourth largest cotton producing country and would become the second
largest importing country this season while India has the largest area
under cotton in the world around 9.0 million hectares, is the second
largest in world production, second largest in raw cotton exports and
the second largest in raw cotton consumption in the world. On the basis
of above mentioned performance, all umpires agree to declare India as
winner.
THIS
ARTICLE MAY BE INCONCLUSIVE WITHOUT OFFERING SOME SUGGESTIONS FOR
IMPROVING PAKISTAN'S PERFORMANCE IN THE FIELD OF COTTON AND THESE ARE AS
UNDER:
1. A broad-based inquiry commission should be formed to analyse the cause of retardation in cotton production and productivity.
2.
Pakistan should adopt biotechnology in seed breeding to produce hybrid
seeds particularly Bt seed varieties and immediate arrangements be made
to replace the present poor quality deteriorated seed by new and
promising varieties of seed.
3.
The present set up of agriculture extension in provinces should be
re-organised on scientific lines to make them result-oriented.
4.
Justification of keeping the existing research centers/ institutes/
organisations should be examined and these should be reorganised on the
basis of real needs.
5.
A monitoring cell should be established under Federal Ministry of
Agriculture to examine the operation of different agriculture
departments/ institutions with reference to performance of given
targets.
6. System of rewards and punishments should be introduced in all departments to improve operational efficiency of the workers.
7. All ginning units should be updated and modernised so as to improve quality of ginning and to standardise ginning system.
8. Cotton Standardisation should be introduced immediately at ginning stage to improve lint quality to international standards.
9.
Agricultural loan policies should be farmer-friendly and should be
result-oriented as existing policies have become stale and unproductive.
Pakistan
is a single crop economy as exports of cotton and cotton made products
earn 65 percent of total annual export earnings. As such, promotion of
cotton means promotion of exports while failure of cotton crop
tantamount to heavy damage to Pakistan economy. It would be difficult
for our textile industry to compete textile giants like China, India,
Bangladesh, Vietnam and Sri Lanka in export of textiles when we have to
import a larger amount of cotton to meet shortfall of our cotton
requirements.
